Failed one-term mayor and sore loser Jim Newberry was feeling especially bitter this Easter Sunday. He was busy sulking that he didn’t get to hang out with all of the Kool Kids during the UK basketball fun times, when he decided to let his pathetic internal feelings go outward, posting this to his Facebook “fan” page:
Insight Cable (cn|2 Politics) has released a new Kentucky poll about the Kentucky Governor’s race. One number in particular raises a serious red flag about the poll’s accuracy and reminds us that Braun Research, Insight Cable’s pollster, has a horrible track record in Kentucky political campaigns.
Attack the messenger? Check.
The most recent Braun survey shows a right track/wrong track number (40% right vs. 41% wrong) that seems seriously misaligned with the actual mood of the country. The most recent CBS News poll, conducted June 3-7, shows that only 31% of Americans think the country is on the right track while 60% say it is on the wrong track. During a survey conducted June 3-6, the Reuters/Ipsos poll also found 60% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.
We find it highly unlikely that in Kentucky, where unemployment is much higher than the national average, people view the state of affairs more positively. This flaw in the polling would produce a pro-incumbent bias. Kentucky finds itself near the bottom of the barrel in most economic indicators and it stands to reason that voters would be at least as unhappy about the state of Kentucky’s economy as people are about the state of the nation’s economy.
Or, this just means that asking people how they feel about their state is different than asking people how the feel about the country. Because, you know, it’s a completely different question that encompasses completely different people and issues. Just like how people universally hate Congress, but like their individual Congressperson (shout out to Richard Fenno). In actuality, the Williams camp is unintentionally exposing just how strong Beshear is, despite high unemployment and a nationwide recession. Unless they’re arguing that we can’t believe any numbers from the socialist commune known as Insight…
Another political metric to consider is raw name identification. According to Braun’s numbers Steve Beshear is basically maxed out in terms of name ID (only 7 % don’t have an opinion of him). David Williams, on the other hand, shows just 72% of people with an opinion leaving more than a quarter of voters who have yet to form an opinion. That would indicate that Williams has plenty of room to grow. Furthermore, it is common sense that an incumbent governor who has appeared on the statewide ballot numerous times in his life would have higher name identification than a State Senate President who hasn’t appeared on a statewide general election ballot since 1992. It should also be noted that Beshear has already spent over $1 million in paid media advertising in this particular campaign.
Oh…. so now Braun’s numbers are correct. But the people who don’t know Williams are going to flock to him, because he’s just so doggone likeable.
(If RGA is reading between the lines here, and we know you are, that means that they think you’re stupid)
Of course, Braun has a history of conducting faulty research on behalf of cn|2. It is important to remember just how inaccurate Braun was in Kentucky in the 2010 election cycle. The inaccuracy in most cases was a bias against the performance of Republican candidates who won handily.
They go on to cite two cn|2 state senate polls in which their findings two months before the election were far off from the results on election day. Though if you assume that undecideds broke heavily for Republicans in 2010 (which they did, and cn|2 has high amount of undecideds in their polls), then they actually weren’t that horrendous (yet not good). They also cited cn|2′s US Senate poll from last year to discredit them. Which was odd, considering that cn|2 was right on the money with that one. And what about other polls that cn|2 did? Like how they were dead on in showing Barr closing fast against Chandler two weeks away from the election? Oddly not mentioned. I think SUSA and Mason Dixon are the two most respected pollsters when it comes to Kentucky, but the notion that cn|2 is engaging in liberally biased polling is a little silly.
“Any campaign can say whatever they want about the results, but I’m confident that the cn|2 poll and Braun Research that does the polling gets an accurate snapshot of where the electorate is at any particular time,” he says. “Poll results are not meant to be a predictor of what’s going to happen in an election, but rather an accurate picture of what likely voters feel at the time.”
Alessi points out the Williams campaign hasn’t challenged the survey’s methodology and the memorandum shows cn|2 was accurate during the closely watched 2010 U.S. Senate race, which showed Rand Paul beating Jack Conway in the last survey before Election Day.
“I’m sure any campaign would love to be ahead in all of the polls. We’re just trying to put out information to the voters about where there their fellow voters are in the thinking process about these races,” says Alessi. “We’re glad people are talking about it.”
Yeah, isn’t that odd that Williams put up a three page memo trashing cn|2′s polling (besides the parts they agreed with), yet didn’t mention a single methodological problem with the polling? No problem with sample size or region or party makeup or ideology or anything else…. it’s almost like they were just trying to spin a national GOP organization into pouring their money into a lost cause here in Kentucky. Almost, right?
In closing, I have a question for the Williams campaign to ponder: “if a paid off discredited shill attack blog spins for you, yet nobody is reading it anymore, does it actually make a sound?”
Just something to think about.
UPDATE: And when I say “RGA”, I of course mean independent expenditure groups, too. Big shot billionaire business interests don’t want to waste their money either.
Yes, it’s been an entire week since someone in the Godless secular mainstream media wrote something mean about Ken Ham’s magic dineysore boat, using facts and such. And that doesn’t fit with Ark Encounter’s business model, as their entire strategy relies on their persecution from atheists and Godless media in order to bring in publicity, sympathy and money. Silence = no money from suckers for their big con.
In order to keep themselves in the martyrdom eye of the public, Answers in Genesis wrote a long whiny sob story letter to the Courier Journal, which I’m sure they published for dark humor purposes. The AiG flak explains how the Courier Journal only writes mean Godless facts about Ark Encounter because they hate God, Kentuckians, and all of the jobs that the giant dineysore boat will create. It’s a tear-jerker.
But sympathy alone won’t build Ark Encounter. While a fight with KY newspapers is nice and all, Ken Ham knows that he needs a bigger public figure to have a rap battle with in order to bring in $30 million of donations. Someone like… Glenn Beck!
Yes, Ken Ham was watching Fox News recently and had a light bulb moment. Glenn “Mormon” Beck and a big Jewish rabbi were talking about the Tower of Babel, and guess what? They actually thought it was an allegory! Nothing but symbolic metaphors that weren’t literal and historically accurate! Ken Ham saw dollar signs and cast off this opening salvo in what he hoped was a biblical war with Glenn Beck:
I happened to be skipping through the TV channels (surfing with a remote control is a male thing I am told!) and heard commentator Glenn Beck discussing the Genesis 11 account of the Tower of Babel with a rabbi.
My ears pricked up because of this topic from Genesis. But I was so dismayed to hear comments like these from Mr. Beck and the rabbi:
* “And then the mortar that holds it [the Tower] together is the stuff, the material. Not the—not their common experiences of spiritualist or even history . . . . And I urge people to read the story and to listen to us, not as if we’re describing some long forgotten historic event . . . .” [Me: in other words, the Tower of Babel wasn’t a historical event?]
* “But the bricks represent people.” [So, the bricks weren’t real bricks but supposedly symbolized people?]
* “. . . the mortar is very related—same word really as the word materialism . . . . The mortar that will hold those bricks together is materialism.” [So, the mortar represented materialism?]
* “After the Great Flood, everybody on Earth was getting together and then, all of a sudden, somebody had a different idea: Hey, how about we all speak one language and we’ll build a tower to reach the sky?” [In other words, people spoke different languages before the Tower of Babel, and then they were led to speak one?]
* “Rabbi, the very first time socialism or communism or new world order was tried was the Tower of Babel, right?” [So, Babel is really about socialism?]
* Beck: “They think they are doing good and that’s why God didn’t punish them. He blessed them by making them stones again, right?” Rabbi Lapin: “Correct.” [Therefore, God didn’t judge the people at the Tower of Babel? He actually blessed them by making them individuals again (represented by the different languages)?]
My heart sank as I heard this from such a well-known broadcaster. Even though he says he respects the Bible, Beck’s comments were an outright attack on the history of this Babel event recorded in the book of Genesis. The Bible makes it clear: people rebelled against God as they built this Tower. They had disobeyed God’s directive. God judged them by causing them to speak different languages
Glenn Beck, you blasphemous bastard! You’ve been served by The Ham! Getting his Mormon on with that “rabbi”, how disgraceful! He’s no better than the secular humanists, I say!
I don’t expect Glenn Beck to pick up the bait of course, as dark-skinned communists infiltrating halls of power of our government take obvious precedent over a crazy grifter trying to pick a fight with him so he can build a giant dineysore boat. But we can always hope that Ham will keep on trying. It’s what Behemoth would have wanted him to do.
UPDATE: Remember, Ken Ham thinks that the Pope and Catholics are not real Christians, either. Everyone except Ken Ham is attacking the Baby Jesus!
The two major newspapers in our state have not been keen at all (putting it mildly) on the Ark Encounter and its goal of bringing parts of the Bible to life and to present biblical events as true history—including a wooden full-scale Noah’s Ark here in northern Kentucky (and in the same region as our Creation Museum). The Louisville paper, the Courier-Journal (the largest paper in the state), and the Lexington newspaper (the Herald-Leader) have featured several articles and editorials in the past several weeks that have attacked the Ark project and also Gov. Steve Beshear for supporting it.
The Louisville paper is preparing an article that will probably appear tomorrow (Sunday) and which will apparently take another swipe at the Ark Encounter. We are aware that the reporter has been asking people in the theme park industry for their views on the Ark Encounter and its yearly attendance projections. Supposedly, there are people at theme parks who have been contacted by the paper who are skeptical about the Ark’s success and have shared that with the paper. Yet since they have not conducted any kind of study on such an attraction and its theme, their opinion is mere guesswork and not based on any hard data.
Mark Looy, our CCO, has sent me a report on how the two state newspapers have been misrepresenting the project and are determined, apparently, to move it out of the state and take millions of dollars in revenue and thousands of jobs with it. How is that for responsible journalism when they not only horribly misrepresent the Ark Encounter, but do so in a time with a shaky economy and so many people unemployed?
How dare they do research and report facts, instead of quoting AiG press releases and bible verses verbatim?!? Who do they think they are, a free and independent media?!?
This does make me wonder about an interesting Ark Encounter theory. Since Answers in Genesis is hemorrhaging money (seriously, look at the liabilities on their 990′s), is this Dineysore Boat merely a scam to bring in donations from suckers all over the country to cover their loses/debts? And the Godless secular media is their persecuting scapegoat once the dineysore boat falls on its ass?
We already know that Ken Ham is one of the most cynical con men/grifters on the planet. It’s not like such a scam would shock anyone, if true. Well, everyone but Steve Beshear.
Anyway, I guess we’ll hear what the CJ says tomorrow. Popcorn.
It’s funny how some incumbent politicians tend to act when when they’re a week away from getting fired by their constituents. They tend to lose all grip with reality and become completely unhinged.
Like Lexington Mayor Jim Newberry.
Here’s a taste of what Jim Newberry’s Bromanager sent out in response to Jim Gray’s new ad poking at Newberry over what South Limestone cost taxpayers:
From: Lance Blanford Sent: Oct 24, 2010 7:03 PM To: xxxxxxx Subject: Liar
Mark Twain famously said, “A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.”
Not this time. Let me be clear: Jim Gray is a liar, pure and simple. I am writing to you today to ask you to forward this to other people and help us spread the word that Jim Gray’s latest television ad (along with the others) is a pure fabrication.
Jim Gray is not just attacking Jim Newberry. Jim Gray is attacking Lexington. He is attacking every member of the City Council who voted for the South Limestone project, he is attacking the city’s public works, legal, accounting and purchasing departments and accusing them of criminal behavior without a shred of evidence. Jim Gray alleges, in effect, that all of his colleagues on the city council are corrupt, that the entire city government of Lexington is corrupt and that the local media is so corrupt they are ignoring this enormous scandal.
Rubbish. These “scandals” Gray makes television commercials about exist only in his mind.
Jim Gray is like a spoiled child who insists everyone is wrong … except him. Everyone else is corrupt … except him. No one has a clue…except him. Jim Gray stands alone with his finger pointed at us all.
With his lies about Jim Newberry, Jim Gray has revealed his own character to have been eroded by his blind ambition, replaced with vicious lies and innuendo. Jim Gray stands alone … a liar … delusional … debasing himself with one wild charge after another … pouring his millions into his campaign … lashing out not only at Mayor Jim Newberry but at everyone in the entire city government.
Jim Gray has today cemented his permanent and very personal legacy. After today, Jim Gray will forever be remembered for the day he personally appeared in a television commercial, looked into voter’s eyes, and told a series of lies so blatant that no one will ever see his face or hear his name without recalling this simple truth: Jim Gray is a liar.
You know when you can be sure that a candidate is scared for his life that he is going to lose? When they send out an email with a string of unhinged ad hominem attacks like that one. At long last, Newberry finally realizes that he himself is of no consequence.
The Gray campaign’s volunteer page on their website is here, in case you want to hear Jim Newberry really whine on November 2nd.
Rand Paul will announce tomorrow if he runs away from Jack Conway like a coward or debates him on Monday:
LOUISVILLE – Republican U.S. Senate nominee Rand Paul said Thursday that he will announce at a campaign stop in Lexington Friday afternoon whether he will participate in a scheduled debate Monday night on Kentucky Educational Television with his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway.
Paul said on Monday that he might pull out of the KET debate because he did not want to appear in public with Conway.
After all of Rand Paul’s manly man macho rhetoric about “manning up” and “being a man”, it will certainly be amusing if Pouty Rand takes his ball and goes home. Or maybe he’ll just send his wife there to do his work for him again.
UPDATE: The Conway campaign says that either way, Conway will show up:
“Attorney General Jack Conway will be at the debate - regardless of whether Rand Paul has the guts to answer basic questions about his own actions. Jack understands and will always stand up for the people of Kentucky. Rand should stop his huffing and puffing and start answering people’s questions.”
“The attorney general appreciates the work of the Ethics Commission and its review of this matter, which ultimately found the complaint filed against him by his primary opponent failed to allege a violation of the ethics code. Moreover, it affirms the integrity of the work being done by our Office of Rate Intervention, which has saved more than $150 million for Kentucky ratepayers since General Conway took office.”
Dan Mongiardo now moves on to other pressing WATB matters, like shaking down prominent KY Democrats for money to pay off his debt, in return for his endorsement of Jack Conway.