Unsurprisingly, Dr. Dan’s stable of lunatics are foaming at the mouth over their internal polling that puts him up big over Jack Conway. I can let Jack Conway’s people speak for themselves, and Jake has already put his finger on how faulty Dr. Dan’s logic really is. So I won’t rehash how easy it is for a bunch of whackjob amateur politicos who live in their in-laws’ basement to blow a shitty poll out of proportion.
Instead, I’ll refer you to the historic evidence (and the other historic evidence)…like, oh, say, how Barack Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton by 15 points in Iowa just 10 months before the caucus that he won by 9 points, where Hillary posted third behind Mr. President and John Edwards. Or perhaps how Obama was polling 10 points behind Hillary in Oregon, with just 21% support, and ended up scoring 58% of the vote when that primary actually rolled around a year later? Shit, Obama was trailing Hillary by 31 points a year before the Alabama primary that he WON by 14 points.
Point (no pun intended) being, internal polls being done a year in advance, with likely bias in presentation, isn’t good practice, no matter which way you look at it. But if you want some good historical precedent for why polling doesn’t matter right now, you don’t have to look past the Oval Office to see it. If we’re going to get all psyched about a bullshit poll, why not just run a straw poll on B&P and demonstrate clear bias in both questions, intended audience and sample size and then try to pass it off as legitimate! Oh, wait…someone else already did that. Three times.
Nate Silver has a piece up about what the 2008 presidential campaign might have looked like with Hillary atop the Democratic ticket. I agree that it’s “doubtful” Hillary would have been able to put together the field and fundraising operation that were in large part responsible for Obama’s success. The hypothetical back-and-forth is still worth a look though, I suppose.
Yes, we’ve crossed the threshold: Goodbye 52. Hello….
7 is a nice number, no?
As easy as it is to make fun of Sarah Palin, I’ll do my best to keep in mind that the failitude was on its way long before she came to the ticket. I have half a mind to think that they chose her just to put bitches back in their place as incompetent nitwits who are only useful as cum-dumpsters.
UPDATE: “Palin is a dumb slut and that’s why we lost.“
I often find myself trapped by the questions and thinking to myself, ‘You know, this is a stupid question, but let me … answer it.’ So when Brian Williams is asking me about what’s a personal thing that you’ve done [that's green], and I say, you know, ‘Well, I planted a bunch of trees.’ And he says, ‘I’m talking about personal.’ What I’m thinking in my head is, ‘Well, the truth is, Brian, we can’t solve global warming because I f—ing changed light bulbs in my house. It’s because of something collective.
Sounds like communism to me.
I’d like to thank John McCain for energizing the Republican base with his choice of Sarah Palin.
McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.
Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.
In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.
Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.
Oh sure, Americans can’t stand Sarah Palin, but it’s not like they love anyone else, right?
One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.
And guess where Obama is starting to air ads!!!!
400 electoral votes, folks…. it’s not out of the question.