polls

H-L endorses Conway, Edelen; CN|2 new poll numbers show Dems sweeping

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October 24, 2011
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A quick round-up:

His opponent, Republican John T. Kemper III, is a developer with no government experience. As a candidate he’s talked about many hot-button social issues outside the purview of the auditor’s office and has failed to convince that he fully understands the responsibilities of the job.

Conway is far and away the better choice.

  • Beshear and Williams and everyone else are going to Henderson. That’s not really all that interesting except that it gives me an opportunity to point out what’s been on my mind for months now… why in the world is David Williams following Beshear to Henderson two days after the Governor leaves town? He’s whined and whined and whined about how Steve is avoiding him, how Steve’s afraid to debate… blah blah blah. The answer for his dumb campaign was obvious: get in a bus and follow Steve everywhere, whenever Steve gets out and says something, David gets out and says something… else. Or they can both agree the coal industry is more important than the people of the Commonwealth. Whatever it is, point being, why is David Williams not dogging Steve everywhere? How much does his campaign staff suck?

 

CN|2 Poll shows Beshear 29 points up… Conway, Edelen & Grimes also up

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September 2, 2011
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Mr. Pure Politics, Ryan Alessi, has a new poll out and, on the Governor’s race at least, it mirrors the PPP of Wednesday:

53.5% for Beshear

25.3% for Williams

7.2% for Galbraith

So if Gatewood can pick up all of Williams’ support, he’d still be down by about twenty.

 

[If you missed B&P's exclusive forward-looking statement predicting (with a surprise ending) the outcome of this fascinating race, you'll want to go back to that. It's the kind of in-depth analysis you will get no where else.]

In other races:

ATTORNEY GENERAL

  • 53.2% Jack Conway, Democrat
  • 26.4% Todd P’Pool, Republican

AUDITOR

  • 31.5% Adam Edelen, Democrat
  • 28.6% John Kemper, Republican

SECRETARY OF STATE

  • 36.8% Alison Lundergan Grimes, Democrat
  • 27.9% Bill Johnson, Republican

 

All those have wiiiiide swaths of “Unsures” so they are very fluid, but good news for all three Dems there.

Alessi has much, much more including numbers on other races and some fun video with David Williams saying that polls don’t matter because when you’re down 25+ in two different polls, they can’t both be right. (And further down, Mr. Edelen).

 

Go to CN|2!

 

 

Michele Bachmann is laughing at Pawlenty, along with everyone else

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July 14, 2011
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Two more polls show that Michele Bachmann is already vaulting over Romney and the rest of the field in Iowa, to which I continue to say I told you so. In fact, Romney insiders are already leaking that they are conceding Iowa to her.

And while Michele Bachmann is now claiming that she only signed part of the pledge to ban pornography and claim that black kids in slavery had it real good, that’s just the kind of truthiness that 2011 Republican crave.

But don’t look now, it’s Tim Pawlenty!

Who?

Tim Pawlenty! And he’s here to flip this race upside down with this amazing 6 minute campaign video about Faith and Family and Values and Tim Pawlenty’s Real Ultimate Power of God!

So what do you say? Does Pawlenty drop out before Iowa, or immediate after the results from Iowa are official on February 6th?

Bachmann is on fire

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July 13, 2011
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We’ve been slacking on our Michele Bachmann coverage over the last two days, but wanted to pass along this news if you hadn’t heard it.

Two new polls from Iowa show that she has finally taken over the lead (which is only going to grow). Bachmann fever is spreading like The Plague.

And speaking of fire, if you go to the awesome clinic that she and her husband run, you dirty homosexuals can be cured of the gay and avoid the fires of hell:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Don’t worry, I don’t think this will hurt her a great deal among Republicans.

Onward, Michele!

Bachmann surging in New Hampshire

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July 6, 2011
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GOP presidential nominee Michele Bachmann. Yes, this could totally happen. PPP shows that Romney’s huge lead in New Hampshire is shrinking, along with his approvals, while Bachmann continues to surge within 7 points of him.

Mitt Romney- 25%
Michele Bachmann- 18%
Sarah Palin- 11%
Ron Paul- 9%
Rick Perry- 7%
Herman Cain- 7%
John Huntsman- 6%
Tim Pawlenty- 6%
Newt Gingrich- 4%

Romney’s starting to show some signs of weakness in New Hampshire. His support is down 12 points from 37% on the iteration of our April poll that didn’t include Mike Huckabee or Donald Trump. His favorability numbers are headed in the wrong direction as well. He’s dropped a net 18 points from +49 at 68/19 to +31 at 60/29. He’s certainly still the front runner in the state but he’s not looking as inevitable as he did a few months ago.

With seven months to go, he’s not.

Tea Party taking their country back!

GOP 2012 Circus Roundup

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July 6, 2011
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In case you lost track over the holiday weekend, here’s a roundup of what’s been happening in The Greatest Show on Earth:

  • Mitt Romney is a human pinwheel, which is fascinating to watch. Over the span of one week, he’s managed to say Obama made the recession worse, then denied ever saying it, then managed to say that again. It’s not huge in itself, but when your base is wary of this and you have a new one every week, it adds up.
  • Another New Hampshire poll shows Mitt leading easily. Unfortunately for him, it’s the second straight NH poll to show Michele Bachmann sprinting up to 2nd place.
  • And look at this. Joining Oregon and Montana as states where Bachmann is leading the GOP field in a poll is New Mexico. The West is looking like Bachmann country, and it’s only July.
  • Ron Paul must have done something to really piss off David Duke, because he’s thinking about withholding his support of Father Liberty and running for president on the GOP ticket himself.
  • Even if Ron Paul doesn’t have David Duke in his corner, he does have another SPLC certified extremist campaigning for him in Iowa soon. In late June, Rand Paul will take part in Liberty Bus Tour through the Hawkeye State.
  • Unfortunately for Ron Paul, Iowa grows corn, not poppies. He’s going to lose hard, but he might be able to compete with Pawlenty.
  • HermanCainia is so full of Liberty and Awesomeness that he’s already got some kind of gay witch hunt happening with his staff and volunteers. Catch the Fever, not The Gay!

Beshear currently polling Kentucky

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July 5, 2011
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I just received a tip that the Beshear campaign started polling the state of Kentucky tonight. Here were the details of the call:

  • Conducted by Hart Research, who are Beshear’s boys.
  • Asked who they would choose in matchups of: Beshear/Williams, B/W/Gatewood, and including the name of running mates.
  • Asked whether Williams or Beshear aligned more with certain qualities (leadership style, ethical, honest, etc…)
  • Went through 4 questions, saying “Beshear supporters might say this”, followed by talking about his work on prescription pills, horses, energy, GM/cars, etc…
  • Sample attack line on both Farmer and Abramson to gauge its effectiveness. The Farmer question brought up all of his spending scandals. The Abramson question referred to no-bid contracts after taking contributions.
  • Follow up question on who they are supporting for governor.

With Steve Beshear sitting on that giant pot of money, it looks like the campaign is making sure they know how to spend it. And they obviously want to find out just how much this Abramson stuff is going to hurt, if at all.

So there’s your little window into the Beshear mindset. Unfortunately, no dinosaur questions :(

Tell PPP to poll Kentucky

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June 29, 2011
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Public Policy Polling is asking their readers what state they should poll next.

Considering that none of the other states have any races until next year… yeah, you should go vote for Kentucky so we can see if David Williams has broken 35% yet.

PPP: Bachmann leading GOP in Oregan, Montana

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June 28, 2011
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I’m serious folks, this could happen. Look who has vaulted to the top in Oregon and Montana, according to PPP:

Oregon
Bachmann- 29%
Romney- 28%
Paul- 10%
Gingrich- 9%
Cain- 7%
Pawlenty- 6%
Huntsman- 2%

Montana
Bachmann- 25%
Romney- 22%
Gingrich- 11%
Paul- 10%
Pawlenty- 9%
Cain- 8%
Huntsman- 4%

Meanwhile, today’s lesson in Bachmann American History is that John Quincy Adams was one of the Founding Fathers that bravely ended slavery. Edit your wikipedia page accordingly (ex: “But even as an embryo, John Quincy Adams could feel pain and was a Founding Father.”).

The best part of this is, the more we laugh at her, the greater her chances of winning the Republican nomination.

This is your moment to shine, GOP!

Luntz focus group says Rand Paul is the most popular person in American history

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June 20, 2011
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Shocking! They like him even more than HermanCainia, which I didn’t think was humanly possible:

Frank Luntz is never wrong, and his Fox News focus groups are always representative of Real America, so I think this means that we should go ahead and appoint him Emperor of the New American Revolution, with a Liberty Toilet in every bathroom.

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