Well howdy, Barefooters.
You can read my highlights for what to watch tonight in this sad, sorry example of a Kentucky election right here.
Also, you can follow my live scribbles on the Twitter Death Contraption right here tonight. I’ll be reporting live from the joy-filled victory celebration at Williams-Farmer/RPK headquarters at the Marriott Griffin Gate in Lexington, with my incense, forehead dot and idols. It should be a blast.
Missed you.
In Liberty,
Joe
Who are you going to vote for? Maybe instead of Steve, Dave and Woody… you’ll want to write someone in.
Or maybe you want to follow the lead of Mr. Ronnie Cottonpants. Over the weekend he laid out a serious — and strong — argument for why you really should vote for Gatewood. Or perhaps you don’t want to anger Jesus H. Christ so your vote is automatically ordained to Williams.
And what about the other races? Can the Dems sweep? Can Crosbie surprise? Will Bill Johnson purge the voter rolls?
It’s Election Day and the drama is overwhelming.
Look, I ain’t no Hollenbach boy, but it deserves attention that yesterday the Crosbie campaign posted this to the facebook:
That’s the Jefferson Davis Memorial there. Davis, of course, was the Kentucky-born head of the band of pro-slavery advocates who declared war on the United States of America.
Go Kentucky!
cn|2 shows that not only is Steve Beshear stomping David Williams, but so are most of the Democrats running down the ballot.
Here’s the damage:
Jack Conway- 56%
Todd P’Pool- 30%
Alison Lundergan Grimes- 44%
SDN Bill Johnson- 33%
Adam Edelen- 38%
John Kemper- 35%
Bob Farmer- 48%
James Comer- 33%
Todd Hollenbach- 45%
KC Crosbie- 28%
Ken Moellman- 5%
As you can probably tell, there’s only one race with a high name ID candidate, and Jack Conway is kicking some serious tail in it. This race will get much closer once P’Pool floods your television set with attack ads paid for with all of that McConnell money. But then again, his name is pronounced “pee pool”. And I think he might be French. Nevertheless, these are fantastic numbers for Jack to start with, particularly getting even 24% of Republicans.
In the rest of the races, the undecideds rule. Hollenbach has an expected lead, as he’s an incumbent and Crosbie is unknown outside of Lexington, not having a primary last month. Farmer has an expected lead because his name is Farmer, he’s running for Commissioner of Agriculture, and everybody is stupid. Grimes’ lead is going to grow once she goes on the air with all of that Alliance money. Same with Edelen, as Lex Vegas odds say that he’ll have approximately 20 times the money to spend.
I doubt we’ll see any real movement in these numbers until after Fancy Farm when things start to heat up, but there’s your generic “who are these people?” snapshot.
Here you go:
Governor (R)
Williams- 68,540 48.2%
Phil Moffett- 53,950 38.0%
Holsclaw- 19,644 13.8%
Secretary of State (D)
Grimes- 85,563 55.3%
Walker- 69,077 44.7%
Secretary of State (R)
Johnson- 66,429 50.4%
Legg- 65,332 49.6%
State Auditor (R)
Kemper- 70,874 57.3%
Wuchner- 52,876 42.7%
State Treasurer (D)
Hollenbach- 106,194 71.0%
Hamrick- 43,457 29.0%
Agriculture Commissioner (D)
Farmer- 45,666 30.4%
Lackey- 31,560 21.0%
Wilson- 29,011 19.3%
Gritton- 25,003 16.6%
Williams- 19,007 12.7%
Agriculture Commissioner (R)
Comer- 86,527 66.7%
Rothenburger- 43,142 33.3%
And the total turnout number? The overs win: 10.34%
8:21- OK, I’m switching to the Twitter Contraption now. Come on over.
8:20- Williams still up 6,000, Johnson up over 500 votes, 76% in.
8:18- Anyone hearing any total turnout numbers?
8:16- OK folks, I’m going to be switching to the Twitter Machine soon. Follow along here.
8:15- 75% in, Williams up 6,000 votes. Johnson up 450 votes.
8:13- 74% in:
Johnson up 600 votes on Legg
Williams up 45% to Moffett’s 40%
8:03- Johnson up only 14 votes. Wow.
8:02- If Hilda Legg beats Johnson (I had her winning 51-49), I’m 100% on my predictions for tonight. (End Moment of Gloat)
8:00- Johnson now up only 200 votes with 69% in.
7:58- Race should be called for Kemper soon.
Johnson up about 400 votes. Looks like that is the only drama left for tonight.
7:57- WLEX calls it for Farmer.
7:56- 66% in:
Williams still up 46% to 39% over Moffett. Don’t see how Moffett could possibly catch up with the counties not yet reporting.
7:55- WLEX calls it for Grimes.
Johnson back up by about 250 votes.
7:53- 62% in:
Bob Farmer 27,969 29%
John Lackey 19,390 20%
B.D. Wilson 18,951 20%
Stewart Gritton 17,436 18%
David Williams 11,340 12%
Blech.
7:52- 63% in:
Williams- 46%
Moffett- 39%
Legg and Johnson still neck and neck.
7:50- AP about to call it for Grimes, announced at Grimes party.
7:48- 60% statewide
Kemper- 57%
Wuchner- 43%
Looks like Kemper’s a winner
Legg up 400 votes on Johnson. Tight.
7:46- 60% statewide
Williams- 45%
Moffett- 39%
Holsclaw- 16%
7:44- 60% statewide:
Alison Lundergan Grimes 45,117 57%
Elaine Walker 34,314 43%
52% in:
Hilda Legg 36,405 50%
Bill Johnson 35,698 50%
7:42- Stumbo and Rocky Adkins at Grimes party. Anybody in Frankfort?
7:41- WLEX calls it for Comer. If Farmer wins, which it looks like, I’ll go ahead and call the November race for Comer.
7:39- 51% statewide
David Williams 34,102 45%
Phil Moffett 29,596 39%
Bobbie Holsclaw 11,305 15%
7:38- WLEX calls it for Hollenbach. KC Crosbie still ain’t no Hollenbach girl.
7:37- 49% statewide
Bob Farmer 21,058 30%
B.D. Wilson 14,876 21%
John Lackey 13,630 19%
Stewart Gritton 12,778 18%
David Williams 8,444 12%
BAD.
Legg and Johnson tied again.
7:36- 49% statewide
Williams- 45%
Moffet- 39%
7:35- Ben Chandler is standing two feet away from David Schankula. Fun shall be had?
7:34- 49% statewide
Grimes- 57%
Walker- 43%
7:33- This just in: KC Crosbie ain’t no Hollenbach girl.
7:31- 44% statewide
Grimes- 56%
Walker- 44%
7:29- 44% statewide
Williams- 44%
Moffett- 40%
Holsclaw- 15%
Liberty is gaining!
7:28- 40% statewide
Grimes- 57%
Walker- 43%
Johnson is just 300 votes ahead of Legg.
7:25- 40% statewide:
Williams- 45%
Moffett- 39%
Legg- 51%
Johnson- 49%
Also, Jerry Lewis is retiring. Just thought you’d like to kn… nevermind.
7:23- 36% statewide
John Kemper 25,782 55%
Addia Wuchner 21,072 45%
Kemper looking real good.
7:22- 35% statewide
Legg- 50%
Johnson- 50%
Tight!
7:20- 35% statewide:
Farmer- 30
Lackey- 21
Wilson- 19
Gritton- 17
Williams- 12
Our worst fears confirmed. Congrats Mr. Comer on your new position.
7:18- 35% statewide:
Grimes- 56%
Walker- 44%
7:16- 38% statewide:
Williams- 45%
Moffett- 38%
Holsclaw- 17%
Williams breathing much easier now. Liberty starting to get nervous.
7:15- 29% statewide:
Johnson- 52%
Legg- 48%
7:14- 25% statewide
Grimes- 56%
Walker- 44%
7:12- 18% statewide in:
David Williams 11,319 47%
Phil Moffett 9,501 40%
Bobbie Holsclaw 3,133 13%
Alison Lundergan Grimes 14,647 56%
Elaine Walker 11,400 44%
Bill Johnson 8,500 52%
Hilda Legg 7,859 48%
John Kemper 10,766 53%
Addia Wuchner 9,399 47%
Bob Farmer 6,656 28%
B.D. Wilson 5,121 22%
John Lackey 4,882 21%
Stewart Gritton 3,956 17%
David Williams 2,871 12%
7:09: 13% statewide in:
David Williams 7,941 45%
Phil Moffett 7,225 41%
Bobbie Holsclaw 2,460 14%
Dunno if this is including Fayette totals.
7:08- 13% statewide in:
Alison Lundergan Grimes 11,827 56%
Elaine Walker 9,447 44%
7:05: The band stopped playing at Grimes Central, a reprieve, though they aren’t bad. (Club Dub)
6:59: Amanda at NKY Enquirer tweets:
“With more than half of Boone County’s 60 precincts reporting, Moffett, Johnson, Wuchner, Comer, Walker, Hollenbach & Farmer are up.”
She says Moffett is up 320 votes with most of Boone Co. in
6:47- Fayette is 96% in, numbers aren’t moving. Let’s get those other counties in and start having some fun!
The BIG WINNER so far in Fayette is PHIL MOFFETT and LIBERTY. Grimes and Kemper also have to feel good. Dem Ag Commish race is going to be an absolute free for all.
6:46- 94% of Fayette in:
Kemper- 58%
Wuchner- 42%
6:45- 94% of Fayette in:
Farmer- 25%
Lackey- 23%
Gritton- 23%
Wilson- 20%
Williams- 9%
6:44- 94% of Fayette in:
Grimes- 57%
Walker- 43%
6:42- Looks like the statewide figures are just ET absentees, not counting Fayette, which is much more.
6:41- Comer and Hollenbach still cleaning up in Lexington with over 90% of Fayette in.
6:40- 91% of FAyette in:
Grimes- 57%
Walker- 43%
6:37- 87% of Fayette in:
John Kemper 4,789 58%
Addia Wuchner 3,511 42%
6:37- Farmer remains in first, Wilson in 4th in Fayette with 87% in. Not down by much, but still ominous news.
6:36- 87% of Fayette in:
Legg- 51%
Johnson- 49%
6:34- 85% of Fayette in:
Moffett- 54%
Williams- 35%
Holsclaw- 11%
86% of Fayette in:
Grimes- 57%
Walker- 43%
6:32- Kemper needed to be up big in Fayette, he’s up 57-43 on Wuchner
6:31- 68% of Fayette in:
Robert ‘Bob’ Farmer 1,930 24.9
John Faris Lackey 1,832 23.6
Stewart Gritton 1,769 22.8
B. D. Wilson 1,592 20.5
David Williams 629 8.1
6:30- Jody Richards in attendance at the Grimes event.
6:30- 75% of Fayette in:
Legg- 51%
Johnson- 49%
6:27- 60% of Fayette in:
Phil Moffett 3,552 55.2
David L. Williams 2,157 33.5
Barbara Holsclaw 731 11.4
Looking VERY good for Moffett. He needed to take Fayette big, and he’s well on his way to doing that.
6:26- 63% of Fayette in:
Grimes 57%
Walker 43%
6:25- 51% of Fayette in:
Robert ‘Bob’ Farmer 1,482 24.3
John Faris Lackey 1,446 23.7
Stewart Gritton 1,396 22.9
B. D. Wilson 1,292 21.2
David Williams 492 8.1
6:25- 1% statewide in
Grimes- 52%
Walker- 48%
6:24- 55% of Fayette in:
Kemper- 54%
Wuchner- 46%
6:23- 1% statewide in:
Wilson- 25%
Farmer- 25%
Lackey- 21%
6:22- 50% of Fayette in:
Legg- 50%
Johnson- 50%
6:22- 54% of Fayette in:
Phil Moffett 1,267 54%
David Williams 839 34%
Bobbie Holsclaw 311 12%
6:21- Comer up big in Fayette.
6:20- 45% of Fayete in:
Phil Moffett 1,267 54%
David Williams 839 34%
Bobbie Holsclaw 311 12%
6:19- 39% of Fayette in:
Kemper- 51%
Wuchner- 49%
6:18- 40% of Fayette in:
Phil Moffett 1,267 54%
David Williams 839 34%
Bobbie Holsclaw 311 12%
6:17- 24% of Fayette in:
Alison Lundergan Grimes 1,815 57%
Elaine Walker 1,390 43%
6:15- 20% of Fayette in:
Tight race bewteen all Dem. Ag. Commish candidates except Williams
6:12- 22% of Fayette in:
Moffet- 57%
Williams- 34%
Holsclaw- 9%
Here we go!
6:11- 11% of Fayette in:
Grimes- 58%
Walker- 42%
6:10- 2% of Fayette in
Phil Moffett 89 56.0
David L. Williams 55 34.6
Barbara Holsclaw 15 9.4
6:03- The absentees from the Eastern Time Zone will be in first.
6:00- Polls have closed! Look for Fayette to come in first. Moffett needs to be even or up to have a prayer. Grimes should be up big there, if not that spells trouble.
5:45- The Wi-fi Gods are smiling upon us, so the fun begins now. Stay tuned for the results and mean comments.
Check for results here, and also check out WKYT, Herald Leader and the Secretary of State site.
There’s a good reason that Rasmussen doesn’t poll primary races close to the election. They are incredibly hard to predict, and they’ll throw off your success rating. And, well, they’re Rasmussen.
Well, fortunately we have no shame, because we’re going to give today’s primary another crack. Last year we (quick moment of gloat) had a great deal of success in both the primary and the general, but this primary is going to be incredibly difficult to call, with only about 10% turning out to vote and plenty of races with candidates that no one has heard of. Nevertheless, we’re putting our sterling record on the line with some guesses that Lex Vegas odds are showing will be wildly off base.
All right, here we go.
Turnout
Democratic- 7.5%
Republican- 12%
Total- 8.7%
GOP Governor
David Williams- 52%
Phil Moffet- 34%
Bobbie Holsclaw- 14%
Democratic Secretary of State
Grimes- 58%
Walker- 42%
GOP Secretary of State
Hilda Legg- 51%
Some Dude Named Bill Johnson- 49%
GOP Auditor
John Kemper- 53%
Addia Wuchner- 47%
Democratic Treasurer
Todd Hollenbach- 61%
Steve Hamrick- 39%
Democratic Commissioner of Agriculture
Bob Farmer- 31%
BD Wilson- 30%
John Lackey- 26%
Stewart Gritton- 8%
David Williams- 6%
GOP Commissioner of Agriculture
James Comer- 66%
Rob Rothenberger- 34%
There you go. We’ll try to redeem ourselves in the general.
As we head down the home stretch, here are (almost) all of the 2011 KY statewide candidates’ fundraising numbers (as of May 2nd). We list the amount raised since last filing (April 15th), amount spent since last filing, total amount raised, total amount spent and the total cash on hand.
Governor
Beshear/Abramson (D): $200,627 raised since last filing, $284,109 spent since last filing, $4.9 million total, $1.664 million spent, $3.24 million cash on hand.
Holsclaw/Vermillion (R): $3,925 raised since last filing, $6,566 spent since last filing, $26,699 total, $14,051 spent, $12,647 cash on hand.
Williams/Farmer (R): $76,934 raised since last filing, $540,261 spent since last filing, $1.277 million total, $1.07 million spent, $669,839 cash on hand.
Moffett/Harmon (R): $23,328 raised since last filing, $18,446 spent since last filing, $135,978 total, $119,393 spent, $16,244 cash on hand
Attorney General
Conway (D): $35,530 raised since last filing, $4,206 spent since last filing, $166,353 total, $19,017 spent, $147,336 cash on hand
P’Pool (R): $114,335 raised since last filing, $6,428 spent since last filing, $466,467 total, $54,914 spent, $411,552 cash on hand.
Secretary of State
Walker (D): $23,025 raised since last filing, $8,258 spent since last filing, $123,945 total, $29,909 spent, $94,036 cash on hand.
Grimes (D): $75,377 raised since last filing, $19,954 spent since last filing, $378,660 total, $66,889 spent, $311,770 cash on hand
Johnson (R): $925 raised since last filing, $2,574 spent since last filing, $24,041 total, $22,300 spent, $1,890 cash on hand.
Legg (R): $24,525 raised since last filing, $11,411 spent since last filing, $143,910 total, $26,844 spent, $117,065 cash on hand.
State Auditor
Edelen (D): $14,390 raised since last filing, $6,817 spent since last filing, $431,995 total, $95,660 spent, $336,334 cash on hand
Wuchner (R): $7,658 raised since last filing, $1,758 spent since last filing, $42,730 total, ~$13,500 spent, $29,261 cash on hand
Kemper (R): $3,330 raised since last filing, $6,426 spent since last filing, $22,657 total, $19,991 spent, $2,665 cash on hand
State Treasurer
Crosbie (R): $4,650 raised since last filing, $0 spent since last filing, $57,510 total, $4,025 spent, $53,484 cash on hand
Hollenbach (D): $15,470 raised since last filing, $7,922 spent since last filing, $63,479 total, $22,628 spent, $33,302 cash on hand
Hamrick (D): $600 raised since last filing, $400 spent since last filing, $7,710 total, $6,753 spent, $957 cash on hand
Agriculture Commissioner
Comer (R): $19,610 raised since last filing, $69,558 spent since last filing, $200,305 total, $97,494 spent, $102,810 cash on hand
Rotherberger (R): $2,390 raised since last filing, $17,455 spent since last filing, $33,945 total, $32,750 spent, $1,089 cash on hand
Wilson (D): $17,260 raised since last filing, $45,959 spent since last filing, $144,710 total, $116,402 spent, $28,307 cash on hand
Williams (D): no filing with KREF yet.
Lackey (D): $15,080 raised since last filing, $12,078 spent since last filing, $25,244 total, $20,948 spent, $4,396 cash on hand
Gritton (D): $10,175 raised since last filing, $6,207 spent since last filing, $38,994 total, $24,335 spent, $14,659 cash on hand
Farmer (D): $400 raised since last filing, $0 spent since last filing, $16,341 total, $6,508 spent, $9,833 cash on hand
The Kentucky Right to Life Association recently published their endorsements for the upcoming Kentucky primaries. KRLA is the group that explains on their website how having an abortion will give you breast cancer. That is, if it doesn’t kill you. Either way, it’s much more dangerous than actually giving birth. So they’re all about scientifically accurate information and not dishonest scare tactics, thus any of the candidates would be proud to have their endorsement.
Like Democrat Steve Hamrick, running for State Treasurer. Yes, it appears that Hamrick and the KRLA have thrown a wrench into my “Anyone But Hollenbach” strategy. I called the good folks at KRLA today to ask how Hamrick filled out their survey, and they informed me that he gave the “pro-life” response on every question, and is “a very nice man”. If you haven’t checked out their survey, that means that Hamrick wants to criminalize abortion at the federal level, even in cases of rape and incest, is against the morning after pill, and lots of other repugnant stuff.
Now it’s true that Hamrick is running for treasurer and fortunately would have zero say in any policy relating to abortion or birth control, but could you really cast a vote for someone like this? Or give him a stepping stone to a future higher office? No, I’ll be skipping this race in May.
Of note is that not only did Todd Hollenbach not turn in responses, neither did KC Crosbie. Crosbie was actually the only Republican candidate on the ballot this year to not do so, neither did she turn in one to Frank Simon.
I also asked KRLA about some of their other endorsements. They confirmed in the Democratic Commissioner of Agriculture primary that Robert Farmer gave all “pro-life” responses, Williams answered roughly half/half, and Lackey gave some “pro-life” responses. Stewart Gritton and B.D. Wilson threw the survey in the trash.
I asked KRLA why they chose to endorse David Williams over Phil Moffett, even though they answered all of their questions “correctly” (i.e., they think that if a woman is raped and impregnated by her uncle, the government should force her to give birth). I was informed that David Williams had a long proven record of limiting women’s rights in the state legislature, and Moffett was unproven. In fact, they said that Moffett told them that he hadn’t really thought about their issues until a year ago when he decided to run for governor. I brought up how Moffett bravely came out for prosecuting women who have an abortion this week, and he informed me that KRLA is not in favor prosecuting women who kill their baby with a beating heart, rather just the doctor. Effing half-steppers. He said that Moffett’s statement shows how little he’s thought about the issue (i.e., he doesn’t have the B.S. PR talking points down). He also let me know that KRLA doesn’t support prosecuting women because their simple minds aren’t able to grasp what abortion is, and those meanie doctors and boyfriends manipulate their wee brains into doing so. They are victims, just like the babies they kill, you see. Such a wise and compassionate talking point…
Also of note, there was only one candidate that received a “VOTE AGAINST THIS MAN” warning: Jack Conway.
Jack Conway (D) – MUST BE DEFEATED, no response to KRLA PAC survey or National Right to Life PAC survey; strong pro-abortion position, said on “Straight Talk” (August 24, 2001) with John Yarmuth that his position on abortion is like Bill Clinton’s. The Rothenburg Report (March 8, 2002) said “Conway aligns himself with the Clinton approach to abortion.” (Bill Clinton vetoed the ban on partial birth abortion twice and issued five pro-abortion executive orders immediately after taking office.) Speaking to students at Manual High School , Louisville (February 22, 2002) Con-way said he was “pro-choice” and added “All right, if you got up and shaved your face this morning, sit down and shut up, cause this is not your issue. That’s the way I feel about it.”
FYI, Jack’s new website is here, if you want to sign up to volunteer or donate money in his fight against the KRLA, Mitch McConnell and King Coal endorsed Todd P’Pool.
Here are the numbers by race:
Governor
Beshear/Abramson (D): $1.2 million for quarter, $4.8 million total, $3.3 million cash on hand.
Holsclaw/Vermillion (R): $22,077 for the quarter (total), $15,289 cash on hand.
Williams/Farmer (R): $446,943 for the quarter. $1.2 million total, $669,839 cash on hand.
Moffett/Harmon (R): $45,883 for the quarter, $100,774 total, negative $513.83 $11,361 cash on hand (Moffett campaign reported incorrectly the first time)
Attorney General
Conway (D): $129,857 for the quarter (total), $115,046 cash on hand
P’Pool (R): $79,482 for the quarter, $352,132 total, $305,647 cash on hand.
Secretary of State
Walker (D): $100,420 for the quarter (total), $78,769 cash on hand.
Grimes (D): $303,283 for the quarter (total), $256,347 cash on hand.
Johnson (R): $13,146 for the quarter, $23,116 total, $3,389 cash on hand.
Legg (R): Hasn’t filed yet, or at least not on KREF
State Auditor
Edelen (D): $114,860 for the quarter, $417,605 total. $328,761 cash on hand.
Wuchner (R): $35,074 for the quarter (total), $23,362 cash on hand
Kemper (R): $15,152 for the quarter, $19,327 total, $5,763 cash on hand
State Treasurer
Crosbie (R): $52,860 for the quarter (total), $48,834 cash on hand
Hollenbach (D):$36,275 for the quarter, $46,509 total, $33,302 cash on hand
Hamrick (D): $5,560 for the quarter, $7110 total, $776 cash on hand
Agriculture Commissioner
Comer (R): $77,365 for the quarter, $180,695 total, $152,758 cash on hand
Rotherberger (R): $8,680 for the quater, $31,555 total, $16,260 cash on hand
Wilson (D): $78,675 for the quarter, $127,450 total, $57,007 cash on hand
Williams (D): no filing with KREF yet.
Lackey (D): $10,264 for the quarter (total), $1,394 cash on hand
Gritton (D): $20,044 for the quarter, $28,819 total, $10,691 cash on hand
Farmer (D): $8,166 for the quarter, $15,914 total, $9,433 cash on hand
**************
Preliminary winners? Beshear, Williams, Grimes, Edelen, Comer, P’Pool, Crosbie
Shakey? Conway, Walker and Hollenbach
Preliminary losers? PHIL MOFFETT
I’ll fill in the rest when they turn in their homework to KREF.
Subscribe to Barefoot and Progressive
SHE WON'T GO!
THE DAILY YONDER