We’ve done two posts in the past 5 days looking at the election results by precinct in Lexington. Last Friday, we looked at Jim Gray’s incredible rise after the primary, as he was able to dominate not just on the north side, but south of New Circle Road, as well. Yesterday, we found that Jim Gray dominated precincts that voted for either Jack Conway or Ben Chandler, and only narrowly lost precincts that went for both Rand Paul and Andy Barr.
Today, we’re going to look at the results from two weeks ago by each council district in Lexington. We’ll look at Gray’s triumph in what was thought to be hostile territory, as well as look forward to 2012 council races.
The first 4 districts that we’ll look at are the ones that are home to Jim Gray’s biggest adversaries on the council: the 6th (Kevin Stinnett), the 10th (Doug Martin), the 9th (Jay McChord), and the 12th (Ed Lane).
Here are the results, for the 6th District in the races for Mayor, Senate and House:
This one initially looks like a real shocker. Jim Gray beat Newberry on the home turf of one his most conservative adversaries? Yes he did, and that’s remarkable. But even in a terribly down year for Democrats, this district was basically split even on the federal races, as this diverse and widely spread district stretches from African-American neighborhoods in the north to Hamburg gated communities in the southeast. The real question I have when looking at this district is how has someone as conservative as Kevin Stinnett represented this district virtually unopposed since 2004? Considering Jim Gray’s performance in this district, one would think that a more moderate/progressive candidate could finally give him a real run for his money in 2012. Then again, if Kevin Stinnett sees these numbers and moderates himself a bit over the next two years, he may wind up cutting that challenge off at the pass.
Here are the results in the 10th District, home of the Southside Screamer:
Jim Gray went into this conservative district of one of his adversaries where both Conway and Chandler lost… and won by 4 points. This is incredible stuff. Looking ahead to 2012, I think it’s safe to say that Doug Martin will have to look over his shoulder for a candidate that turns out to be better financed or more viable than Kevin Williams turned out to be. Sandy Shafer’s late entry into the race drew an amazing 9% of the vote, far more than I would have thought a write-in candidate could garner in a council race. If Shafer’s health continues to improve, one would think that she would be an odds on favorite to take back her seat that she held for many years. Or, there could be a viable moderate Republican in the vein of Linda Gorton or KC Crosbie that could take on Doug Martin in this district. One things for sure… this Gray Country, as Gray had 600 more votes than Martin in this district.
Here are the results from the 9th District:
This is one of the two most conservative districts in Lexington, home to perhaps Gray’s biggest adversary on the council and blowout losses for Conway and Chandler… yet Jim Gray almost pulls even with Newberry. This is another jaw-dropper.
McChord won by 6% in 2006, and has been unopposed the last two years. McChord would be a tough candidate to beat, but the viable moderate Republican avenue could be a winner. Or, previously term-limited and currently-awesome Jennifer Mossotti could come back and take her old seat. (and in my opinion, she would have Alice Forgy Kerr’s seat right now if the KDP hadn’t chosen Don Blevins to run over her).
Here are the results in the 12th District:
Easily the most conservative district Lexington, the home of Newberry’s biggest ally on the council… and Jim Gray only loses by 6 points and manages to steal away 12 precincts from Newberry. Remarkable stuff.
The results from these 4 council districts show that Jim Gray was able to go into what could have been hostile conservative territory and not only compete, but in the case of the 6th and 10th, win. I’m not sure what message Stinnett, Martin, McChord and Lane take from this, but they’d be rather dim to ignore it.
Alright, now for the rest of Lexington’s council districts, starting with the most conservative and going to the most liberal.
7th District (KC Crosbie):
(Barr won by 20 votes)
Another conservative-ish district that Paul and Barr won… another district that Jim Gray won anyway. I’m sure a good deal of this victory is due to help that both Scott and KC Crosbie provided in the district. Crosbie won her election easily, and it’s doubtful that she’s going to be flanked anytime soon from the right, as the close federal races show that this district isn’t exactly right-wing.
5th District (now Bill Farmer Jr.’s):
Here’s a slightly Democrat-leaning district… and Gray just cold blows out Newberry. Bill Farmer is a Republican and kind of a loose canon, but I assume that he won’t be too adversarial with Mayor Gray. At least he won’t be if he looks at his constituents.
4th District (Julian Beard)
Again, the 4th leans Democrat, but Gray wins in a blowout. Beard will likely sit here safely as long as he wants, because no one eff’s with Julian.
8th District (George Myers)
A solidly Democratic district that went solidly for Gray. No alarms and no surprises. As for 2012, I’m sure Ed Lane would like nothing more than to find a challenger to run against Myers, but anyone acceptable to Lane would not be acceptable to this not-conservative district.
11th District (Peggy Henson)
No alarms and no surprises. As we get into more heavily Democratic districts like this one, we begin to see Gray’s margin dip lower than Conway and Chandler, as some Democrats obviously go towards Newberry, though certainly not most.
2nd District (Tom Blues)
Those observing closely noted that Blues started to cozy up to Newberry in 2010. Time to start cozying of to Gray, me thinks.
3rd District (Diane Lawless)
This was easily Jim Gray’s best district, as the heart of Lexington’s downtown helped him double up Newberry. A source tells me that when Diane Lawless was asked how she feels about working with Gray instead of Newberry next year that she proceeded to do the cabbage patch. Developing…
1st District (now Chris Ford)
Shocking that Lexington’s African-American community forcefully rejected the guy against the Civil Rights Act and the guy at the all-white country club. Shocking. Chris Ford is kind of a mystery, we’ll see what we get out of him soon, I guess.
So there’s our 3rd edition of Fun With Lexington Election Results and Numbers. Until next time…