Failed one-term mayor and sore loser Jim Newberry was feeling especially bitter this Easter Sunday. He was busy sulking that he didn’t get to hang out with all of the Kool Kids during the UK basketball fun times, when he decided to let his pathetic internal feelings go outward, posting this to his Facebook “fan” page:
Run again, Jim. Pleeeeeeeease run again.
XOXO and nothing of any consequence,
Joe
As I’ve said ad nauseum by now, the performance by the Jim Gray campaign during the general election in Lexington is the best I’ve ever seen in my lifetime in Kentucky. Jamie Emmons was the man behind the wheel, and now he’s getting a national award from the American Association of Political Consultants for being the best local campaign manager of 2010.
Very well deserved, congrats to Mr. Emmons. He can put that next to his Rootie.
Campaigns and Elections has a good write up on how Jim Gray’s campaign was able to win the mayoral race in Lexington last year.
And here’s the district by district numbers I put out after the election that showed just how phenomenal this victory was. You don’t get the Person of the Year Rootie for nuthin.
We’ve done two posts in the past 5 days looking at the election results by precinct in Lexington. Last Friday, we looked at Jim Gray’s incredible rise after the primary, as he was able to dominate not just on the north side, but south of New Circle Road, as well. Yesterday, we found that Jim Gray dominated precincts that voted for either Jack Conway or Ben Chandler, and only narrowly lost precincts that went for both Rand Paul and Andy Barr.
Today, we’re going to look at the results from two weeks ago by each council district in Lexington. We’ll look at Gray’s triumph in what was thought to be hostile territory, as well as look forward to 2012 council races.
The first 4 districts that we’ll look at are the ones that are home to Jim Gray’s biggest adversaries on the council: the 6th (Kevin Stinnett), the 10th (Doug Martin), the 9th (Jay McChord), and the 12th (Ed Lane).
Here are the results, for the 6th District in the races for Mayor, Senate and House:
Gray- 50.4%
Newberry- 49.6%
Conway- 49%
Paul- 51%
Chandler- 51%
Barr- 49%
This one initially looks like a real shocker. Jim Gray beat Newberry on the home turf of one his most conservative adversaries? Yes he did, and that’s remarkable. But even in a terribly down year for Democrats, this district was basically split even on the federal races, as this diverse and widely spread district stretches from African-American neighborhoods in the north to Hamburg gated communities in the southeast. The real question I have when looking at this district is how has someone as conservative as Kevin Stinnett represented this district virtually unopposed since 2004? Considering Jim Gray’s performance in this district, one would think that a more moderate/progressive candidate could finally give him a real run for his money in 2012. Then again, if Kevin Stinnett sees these numbers and moderates himself a bit over the next two years, he may wind up cutting that challenge off at the pass.
Here are the results in the 10th District, home of the Southside Screamer:
Gray- 52%
Newberry- 48%
Conway- 45%
Paul- 55%
Chandler- 48%
Barr- 52%
Jim Gray went into this conservative district of one of his adversaries where both Conway and Chandler lost… and won by 4 points. This is incredible stuff. Looking ahead to 2012, I think it’s safe to say that Doug Martin will have to look over his shoulder for a candidate that turns out to be better financed or more viable than Kevin Williams turned out to be. Sandy Shafer’s late entry into the race drew an amazing 9% of the vote, far more than I would have thought a write-in candidate could garner in a council race. If Shafer’s health continues to improve, one would think that she would be an odds on favorite to take back her seat that she held for many years. Or, there could be a viable moderate Republican in the vein of Linda Gorton or KC Crosbie that could take on Doug Martin in this district. One things for sure… this Gray Country, as Gray had 600 more votes than Martin in this district.
Here are the results from the 9th District:
Gray- 49%
Newberry- 51%
Conway- 40%
Paul- 60%
Chandler- 43%
Barr- 57%
This is one of the two most conservative districts in Lexington, home to perhaps Gray’s biggest adversary on the council and blowout losses for Conway and Chandler… yet Jim Gray almost pulls even with Newberry. This is another jaw-dropper.
McChord won by 6% in 2006, and has been unopposed the last two years. McChord would be a tough candidate to beat, but the viable moderate Republican avenue could be a winner. Or, previously term-limited and currently-awesome Jennifer Mossotti could come back and take her old seat. (and in my opinion, she would have Alice Forgy Kerr’s seat right now if the KDP hadn’t chosen Don Blevins to run over her).
Here are the results in the 12th District:
Gray- 47%
Newberry- 53%
Conway- 38%
Paul- 62%
Chandler- 40%
Barr- 60%
Easily the most conservative district Lexington, the home of Newberry’s biggest ally on the council… and Jim Gray only loses by 6 points and manages to steal away 12 precincts from Newberry. Remarkable stuff.
The results from these 4 council districts show that Jim Gray was able to go into what could have been hostile conservative territory and not only compete, but in the case of the 6th and 10th, win. I’m not sure what message Stinnett, Martin, McChord and Lane take from this, but they’d be rather dim to ignore it.
*****
Alright, now for the rest of Lexington’s council districts, starting with the most conservative and going to the most liberal.
7th District (KC Crosbie):
Gray- 51%
Newberry- 49%
Conway- 48%
Paul- 52%
Chandler- 50%
Barr- 50%
(Barr won by 20 votes)
Another conservative-ish district that Paul and Barr won… another district that Jim Gray won anyway. I’m sure a good deal of this victory is due to help that both Scott and KC Crosbie provided in the district. Crosbie won her election easily, and it’s doubtful that she’s going to be flanked anytime soon from the right, as the close federal races show that this district isn’t exactly right-wing.
5th District (now Bill Farmer Jr.’s):
Gray- 56%
Newberry- 44%
Conway- 52%
Paul- 48%
Chandler- 51%
Barr- 49%
Here’s a slightly Democrat-leaning district… and Gray just cold blows out Newberry. Bill Farmer is a Republican and kind of a loose canon, but I assume that he won’t be too adversarial with Mayor Gray. At least he won’t be if he looks at his constituents.
4th District (Julian Beard)
Gray- 56%
Newberry- 44%
Conway- 52%
Paul- 48%
Chandler- 54%
Barr- 46%
Again, the 4th leans Democrat, but Gray wins in a blowout. Beard will likely sit here safely as long as he wants, because no one eff’s with Julian.
8th District (George Myers)
Gray- 55%
Newberry- 45%
Conway- 54%
Paul- 46%
Chandler- 56%
Barr- 44%
A solidly Democratic district that went solidly for Gray. No alarms and no surprises. As for 2012, I’m sure Ed Lane would like nothing more than to find a challenger to run against Myers, but anyone acceptable to Lane would not be acceptable to this not-conservative district.
11th District (Peggy Henson)
Gray- 56%
Newberry- 44%
Conway- 57%
Paul- 43%
Chandler- 59%
Barr- 41%
No alarms and no surprises. As we get into more heavily Democratic districts like this one, we begin to see Gray’s margin dip lower than Conway and Chandler, as some Democrats obviously go towards Newberry, though certainly not most.
2nd District (Tom Blues)
Gray- 55%
Newberry- 45%
Conway- 66%
Paul- 34%
Chandler- 67%
Barr- 33%
Those observing closely noted that Blues started to cozy up to Newberry in 2010. Time to start cozying of to Gray, me thinks.
3rd District (Diane Lawless)
Gray- 68%
Newberry- 32%
Conway- 69%
Paul- 31%
Chandler- 70%
Barr- 30%
This was easily Jim Gray’s best district, as the heart of Lexington’s downtown helped him double up Newberry. A source tells me that when Diane Lawless was asked how she feels about working with Gray instead of Newberry next year that she proceeded to do the cabbage patch. Developing…
1st District (now Chris Ford)
Gray- 67%
Newberry- 33%
Conway- 78%
Paul- 22%
Chandler- 79%
Barr- 21%
Shocking that Lexington’s African-American community forcefully rejected the guy against the Civil Rights Act and the guy at the all-white country club. Shocking. Chris Ford is kind of a mystery, we’ll see what we get out of him soon, I guess.
*****
So there’s our 3rd edition of Fun With Lexington Election Results and Numbers. Until next time…
Did you folks enjoy watching the Curse of CentrePointe at work last week? I know you did.
Well, here’s some more fun for you political numbers geeks out there: the precinct results!
In the primary, Jim Gray only won 9 Lexington precincts outside of New Circle Road. Jim Newberry won 167 precincts outside the circle.
This time? Look: (shaded=Newberry win, non-shaded=Gray win)
That’s right, not only did Jim Gray dominate outside of the circle (while almost winning all of the precincts inside the circle), he won more precincts in the southern suburbs. They had the right message to win them over, the best field staff and volunteers (and resources) in the state, and they simply beat Newberry on his own turf.
To give you a clear picture of the jump that Jim Gray took after the primary, consider this: of the 287 precincts, there was not a single one where Gray’s % of the vote dropped, whereas Newberry’s % dropped in 81 precincts. Another? In only 11 of the 287 precincts did Newberry improve his % of the vote by more than Jim Gray. Those numbers are simply staggering.
Let’s take a closer look at where the game changed for Jim Gray from May 18th to November 2nd. The following map shows the precincts where Jim Gray gained the largest % of votes from his performance in the primary.
(Red = +40%, Blue = +30%, Green =+25%)
The first obvious thing that you learn from this map is that Teresa Isaac’s best districts on the north end swung heavily towards Gray. In fact, only one precinct that she won went to Newberry (barely).
To use one example, look at the Douglas-Washington precinct (73) on the north end. In the primary, these were the results:
Isaac- 69%
Newberry- 20%
Gray- 8%
Here was the general:
Gray- 61%
Newberry- 39%
This is (by far) the most drastic example of this, but in some of the precincts colored red, blue and green in the north, a similar pattern emerges. Isaac took about 50% in the primary, and Newberry/Gray split the rest, but the Isaac voters swung heavily to Gray in the general.
Obviously, the Isaac endorsement was huge. But this remains only a part of the story of Gray’s victory, as Isaac’s districts were few in number and did not make up a huge % of the electorate.
Gray assured himself victory by going into the south end and conquering Newberry on his own turf.
As you can see on the map, Jim Gray absolutely cleaned house on the south end territory surrounded by New Circle, Richmond Road, Man O’ War and Nicholasville Road. And this is an area that Newberry dominated in the primary. Check out the difference in these precincts:
(218) Saddlebrook
Primary- Newberry 49%, Gray 14%
General- Gray 61%, Newberry 39%
(238) Stephen Foster
Primary- Newberry 51%, Gray 26%
General- Gray 64%, Newberry 36%
(177) Niagra
Primary- Newberry 36%, Gray 21%
General- Gray 52%, Newberry 48%
(246) Tatesbrook
Primary- Newberry 55%, Gray 21%
General- Gray 53%, Newberry 47%
(139) Kirklevington
Primary- Newberry 42%, Gray 32%
General- Gray 65%, Newberry 35%
(93) Fox Harbour
Primary- Newberry 49%, Gray 21%
General- Gray 52%, Newberry 48%
(52) Century Hills
Primary- Newberry 40%, Gray26 %
General- Gray 61%, Newberry 39%
(281) Winter Garden
Primary- Newberry 28%, Gray 28%
General- Gray 60%, Newberry 40%
(285) Woodspoint
Primary- Newberry 30%, Gray 24%
General- Gray 60%, Newberry 40%
(94) Gainsway
Primary- Newberry 42%, Gray 29%
General- Gray 57%, Newberry 43%
(184) Old Farm
Primary- Newberry 41%, Gray 34%
General- Gray 60%, Newberry 40%
(275) Wildwood
Primary- Newberry 37%, Gray 33%
General- Gray 59%, Newberry 41%
(242) Summerhill
Primary- Newberry 43%, Gray 31%
General- Gray 58%, Newberry 42%
(65) Cove Lake
Primary- Newberry 39%, Gray 32%
General- Gray 61%, Newberry 39%
(5) Aqueduct
Primary- Newberry 41%, Gray 30%
General- Gray 56%, Newberry 44%
(199) Plainview
Primary- Newberry 37%, Gray 35%
General- Gray 63%, Newberry 37%
Yet Gray’s victory is even more than these south end precincts that he conquered. He also cut into Newberry’s chances by challenging him in his strongest suburban precincts that had very high turnout, basically hanging close enough to negate their effect.
Here are a few examples
(84) Fairhaven (south of Man O’War off Tates Creek)
Primary- Newberry 54%, Gray 32%
General- Gray- 50.3%, Newberry 49.7%
(147) Laurelwood (south of Fairhaven)
Primary- Newberry 53%, Gray 29%
General- Gray 52%, Newberry 48%
(196) Pickway (off Nicholasville Rd. south of Man O’ War)
Primary- Newberry 53%, Gray 28%
General- Gray 50.3%, Newberry 49.7%
(129) Indian Hills (off Harrodsburg btwn New Circle & Man O’ War)
Primary- Newberry 54%, Gray 31%
General- Newberry 51%, Gray 49%
(20) Bayswater (south of Indian Hills)
Primary- Newberry 53%, Gray 32%
General- Newberry 52%, Gray 48%
(140) Kittiwake (Man O’ War/Alumni)
Primary- Newberry 50%, Gray 28%
General- Gray 53%, Newberry 47%
(213) Rockminster (around I-75/Winchester Rd.)
Primary- Newberry- 63%, Gray 23%
General- Newberry- 52%, Gray 48%
(8) Ascott (next to Kittiwake)
Primary- Newberry 50%, Gray 30%
General- Gray 55%, Newberry 45%
(188) Palomar (Harrodsburg and Man O’ War)
Primary- Newberry 66%, Gray 24%
General- Newberry 54%, Gray 46%
And there are a lot more just like this. Plus, he took Masterson Station. He took Woodhill. He took Beaumont. He took Shillito Park. He took rural precincts.
He damned well just about took everything, leaving Newberry with only a handful of insignificant wins in the south end.
Anyways, I’m in geek overload right now, so I better stop right there.
Enjoy the maps. And your new mayor.
P.S.- If Steve Beshear or the KDP do not hire Lisa Tanner to do field for them next year (like a certain 0-4 political consultant didn’t), then they deserve whatever is coming to them in 2011.
The Herald-Leader’s got a nice look at the strategy — and the two women — behind Jim Gray’s big Mayoral win on Tuesday:
“We really felt like the message of running the business of government like a business (and) avoiding wasteful spending were messages that crossed boundaries,” said Gray, who is the city’s vice mayor.Those themes, accompanied with plenty of criticism of incumbent Mayor Jim Newberry, moved Gray from eight points behind in the three-way primary to an almost seven-point victory in the two-candidate general election.
Newberry, meanwhile, blamed his defeat on negative campaign ads and a relative lack of money to hit back.
Ahh… Jim Newberry. Once again pretending to have been outraised and outspent — this is his narrative and he’s sticking to it.
Nevermind it’s not true or that he lost the ground game, or that he was defeated by an army of volunteers, or that the voters were offered a real vision of a better Lexington vs. an inconsequential “vision” of an inconsequential town.
Nevermind.
Lexington not only has a wonderful new mayor, but check out how good the new council looks.
If things went the wrong way Tuesday night, Lexington could have had 4 years of Newberry as mayor and Chuck Ellinger as vice mayor. *shudder*
Instead, we have Jim Gray as mayor and Linda Gorton as vice mayor (who should be great). Also, Bill Farmer Jr. replaces Cheryl Feigel in the 5th. Farmer is a bit of a wild card, but I’m pretty confident that he’ll be an improvement. Meanwhile KC Crosbie held onto her seat easily, and from all indications Chris Ford should be good in his first term in the 1st (though he’s got big shoes to fill following Andrea James). And Steve Kay on the council helps fill the void of Gray.
This means that all of a sudden the 4-person cabal of Ed Lane, Jay McChord, Kevin Stinnett and Doug Martin is looking mighty, mighty small and insignificant. Look forward to lots of impotent rage from these folks over the next 2 years, while Diane Lawless & Co. sit back and chuckle at their political misfortune.
The Southside Screamer may have won, but at least we’ll have lots of temper tantrums and pouting to look forward to…
…and that LFUCG city council that’s looking pretttty prettty pretty good.
First Jim Gray gets a shout out fromPerez Hilton (my biggest chuckle of the day), now he gets one from Rachel Maddow. Our awesome new mayor is quickly becoming a national star.
I’ll have the video once it’s up.
Whatchu got Louisville? River wha? River who?
UPDATE: Video!
We take being factually accurate very seriously here at Barefoot and Progressive, which is why we would like to correct something that we reported last night.
We claimed that Mark Riddle went 0-2 last night, losing badly with both Jim Newberry and Jack Conway.
That is incorrect. As Jake Payne noted today, Riddle also worked for the state senate races of David Eaton and Mike Reynolds, both of whom were blown out. So it would be more accurate to say that he went 0-4, and lost all 4 of those races badly.
We here at B&P would like to apologize for the error.
Honestly, I can’t even put this victory into sufficient words yet. I’ll let you know when I do.
Here is some of it, once again:
You can watch the full speech here.
Notice that unlike Jim Newberry, Jim Gray chose to be gracious and a good sport. But that’s just because he’s a good person, I guess.
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